A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
